Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6611a75d5ef71cc5541d3421c1f821e59d76969909b3cbaac0ec5f7be8fc27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,613$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,574$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 3c | 2,287$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 733.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 677.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 272.7$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 267.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 262.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 194$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 192.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 171.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 161.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 11c | 150.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 148.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 142.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 31c | 129.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 120.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 97.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 68.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 30c | 58.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…0849backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 48.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 72c | 42.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 34c | 40.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…efe8backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 37.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 36.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 25.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 24.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 70c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.