Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0f48e35e79eeab30f641771c8a5988fc9886470ca357b61ae29b7d7fd3c91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,019$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 2c | 2,104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 32c | 906.76$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.21 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 773.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 219.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 16c | 188.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 162.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 19c | 154.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 151$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 147.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 135.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…c97ebacked Yes | 19c | 110.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 103.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 67c | 97.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 93.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 22c | 92.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 26c | 81.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 20c | 71.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 65.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 63.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 76c | 56.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…0849backed Yes | 35c | 53.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 47.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…efe8backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 30c | 41.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 41.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 28c | 41.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 38c | 36.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 75c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.