Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff912fd5c7a520f1a4358452df296133c74bcdddf7ac2a53d7a08afa384adec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,388$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,207$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 2c | 1,191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,123$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 926.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 882.5$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 812.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 690.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked Yes | 3c | 611.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…9efebacked Yes | 11c | 455.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 7c | 401.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 383.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 348.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 10c | 335.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 5c | 269.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 240.43$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 233.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 224.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 182.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 179.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 18c | 159.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 7c | 147.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 141.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 71c | 140.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 134.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 130.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 117.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 117.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 107.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b0…db88backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 99.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 19c | 99.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 99.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 11c | 95.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 19c | 93.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 86.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 78c | 81.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 80.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 20c | 80.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 74.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…0849backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…33cabacked Yes | 29c | 62.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 17c | 61.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 25c | 53.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 30c | 49.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 40.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 30.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.