Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76158baef60f05768016f26a783238779291714749a5e614d8e234ed4c3ffdb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 3c | 1,081$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 605.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 46c | 511.72$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 376.28$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 6c | 370.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 58c | 333.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 12c | 289.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 255.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…7518backed Yes | 9c | 238.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…eaa7backed No | 65c | 168.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 166.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 160.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 31c | 145.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 53c | 130.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 129.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 72c | 118.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 117.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 99.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 92.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 11c | 89.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 57c | 87.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 61c | 57.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 57.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 54.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 38c | 53.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 53.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…550bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b0…db88backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 39c | 49.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 47.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 63c | 47.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 40c | 40.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 34c | 37.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 48c | 36.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 72c | 34.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…dec7backed No | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 56c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 63c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 61c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.