Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f8aa8c40f65b8dab7980fcf25e2ed7ac69e3816de833117e45cd71b3bb98510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 6,091$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.95 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 46c | 4,514$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.17 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 69c | 2,716$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.29 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.85 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…7f95backed Yes | 27c | 1,824$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 29c | 1,484$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.56 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…19ccbacked No | 32c | 1,208$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 25c | 946.78$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 72c | 549.86$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.9 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 32c | 400.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…cad0backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked No | 76c | 288$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 74c | 287.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 68c | 261.29$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 73c | 260$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 73c | 260$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed No | 76c | 259.21$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed No | 77c | 255.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 77c | 245.38$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 34c | 237$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 227.42$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.87 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 27c | 223.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…c9e0backed Yes | 65c | 214.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 25c | 205$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Yes | 71c | 191.34$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 26c | 188.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…56adbacked Yes | 80c | 188$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Yes | 25c | 184.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 34c | 176.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…3479backed Yes | 25c | 168.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 156.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 38c | 131.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 27c | 130.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 53c | 124.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 27c | 118$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 69c | 110.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…dd99backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…ff89backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…aa69backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…9dfdbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…16f8backed Yes | 25c | 66.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked No | 31c | 63.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 66c | 61.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…bd23backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…3b4dbacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…b121backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 55.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…f97cbacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482d…2ce7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…79f9backed Yes | 69c | 39.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe39…10adbacked Yes | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…038abacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…798abacked Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…13c1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf43…d362backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?No won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.