MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f98a828bd720c0f6d974d9e3c7729de9615ae9e88a55d6801755cfa480f13f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 41c | 24,500$10,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,045 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed No | 59c | 10,379$6,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,255.52 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 59c | 10,206$6,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,194.23 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 39c | 4,822$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.48 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 61c | 4,129$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.31 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 3,352$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.24 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 40c | 1,074$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.14 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 59c | 1,001$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.41 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 865$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.65 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 62c | 854.84$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.84 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 284 | 52.5%149 W · 135 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 732.34$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 38c | 707.84$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.98 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 61c | 683.32$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 39c | 466$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 42c | 376.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.35 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…20f6backed No | 61c | 330$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked No | 61c | 324$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…5c65backed Yes | 40c | 307.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 61c | 258.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 60c | 248.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed No | 59c | 227.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 164 | 39%64 W · 100 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 153.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 59c | 148$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 273 | 51.6%141 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 62c | 129.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356d…3290backed Yes | 40c | 104.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…24adbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 61c | 63.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed No | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 62c | 42.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 60c | 30.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 29.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 61c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.