MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7d37bfa8da61df25a150a81b9aeab7c06fe738ad40bc7898c18e6b8de6487b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 18,938$11,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,799.39 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 36c | 5,600$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,563.65 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 64c | 5,550$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,551.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 37c | 3,479$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.81 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 3,359$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 36c | 2,971$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.55 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 2,114$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Over | 36c | 1,856$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.8 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 1,521$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 1,429$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.55 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 39c | 1,147$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.33 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 1,131$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 1,034$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.45 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 1,011$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 978.32$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 42c | 811.53$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.69 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 43c | 500$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 487.52$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 73c | 478.35$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 59c | 453.33$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 450$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 38c | 440.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.11 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 399.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 43c | 370$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 40c | 320.71$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.33 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Over | 37c | 270.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 64c | 244.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 38c | 179$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 152.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 39c | 133$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 36c | 117.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 58c | 116.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 41c | 109.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 41c | 108$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Under | 64c | 102.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 76c | 100.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…b743backed Over | 38c | 95.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 38c | 95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 38c | 95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 37c | 92.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 63c | 86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 58c | 78.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 50c | 74.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 64.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 67c | 64.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 37c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 41c | 59.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…463fbacked Under | 57c | 17.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.