MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c7a5de876400da258953e93587fff45ec0eaee2a09b49a659ff9eb8bd8bc80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 4,354$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.53 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 3,488$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.37 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 1,594$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 1,141$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 17c | 891$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 596.05$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Francisco Giants | 16c | 555$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 548.2$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 535.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…767fbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 494.33$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 429.02$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants | 16c | 414.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 368.68$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 299.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 299$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 159.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 158$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 148.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 132.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 126.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 105.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 51.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 50.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…eddabacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.