Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa58a5f4d4d348e042bad343b9cf8f8a179979c4a56164939543d8bfa22df91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c62…215bbacked No | 0c | 12,620$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed No | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 20c | 1,061$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…4a1dbacked Yes | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…d68ebacked Yes | 77c | 599.99$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 562.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 30c | 475.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 70c | 354.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…babebacked Yes | 63c | 150.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed No | 29c | 142.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked Yes | 75c | 141.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bd…cd15backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf659…d1fabacked No | 24c | 95.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 71c | 52.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0d…bc8dbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…ec1ebacked No | 24c | 43.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…a7b9backed Yes | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.