Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4b514c7fc50edd40108fb5093ea7d56a0e49e7b1de92179badf641a2414382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 17c | 8,123$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,705.25 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 37c | 7,313$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,605.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 70c | 6,914$4,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.9 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa37c…0020backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed No | 38c | 4,073$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.44 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,735$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.73 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Yes | 12c | 2,312$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 7c | 1,686$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.19 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 1,549$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.45 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 4c | 1,405$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked No | 77c | 1,297$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,071$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.43 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 6c | 948$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 22c | 815.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.15 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 47c | 632.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.59 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 75c | 609.4$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9d…ebebbacked No | 66c | 604.33$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 571.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed No | 44c | 508.79$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 78c | 494.79$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.42 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 45c | 446.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…978fbacked No | 67c | 420.87$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…accbbacked Yes | 33c | 358.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 56c | 357.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…e223backed Yes | 42c | 355.14$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 346.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ad…c163backed Yes | 5c | 305.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.94 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 54c | 300$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 26c | 300$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.1 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…f363backed No | 44c | 250.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…1c1cbacked Yes | 28c | 220$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +261%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 65c | 194.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…ceb6backed Yes | 42c | 188.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 33c | 184.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Yes | 55c | 181.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed Yes | 68c | 162.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 156.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…735dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +363%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…3d4abacked Yes | 34c | 146.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…1ecebacked No | 70c | 143.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked No | 63c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…61dcbacked No | 61c | 127.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…b328backed No | 78c | 106.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 12c | 103.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…9b6bbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…9a3dbacked Yes | 58c | 96.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed No | 75c | 84.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…3a52backed Yes | 34c | 80.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 11cpaid | +238.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…72bdbacked No | 51c | 79.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5aeabacked No | 76c | 78.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…1b88backed No | 68c | 73.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 29c | 70.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 58c | 68.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 78c | 59.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Yes | 33c | 59.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +303.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…cc50backed No | 18c | 55.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 63c | 47.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…c228backed No | 74c | 39.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 72c | 33.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…e731backed Yes | 39c | 32.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…50acbacked No | 64c | 30.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…7b42backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf09…2eb6backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 55c | 28.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…c5fbbacked No | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…b4aabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.