Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a2e55d47219b29466dce35298e40f8b408bb17347a72a834b4416848e1b8082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fba…56d0backed Yes | 62c | 8,112$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.04 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed No | 59c | 4,300$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 2,561$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.54 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 76c | 2,500$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.2 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 57c | 2,211$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.82 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 50c | 2,050$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.21 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed No | 63c | 1,208$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 1,200$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 65c | 1,165$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.19 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 71c | 1,132$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 62c | 828.41$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked No | 21c | 733.86$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 38c | 701.29$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.84 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 54c | 612.9$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.96 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…1b33backed No | 43c | 430.01$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 74c | 316.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…9b93backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed No | 27c | 290.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 50c | 288.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5aeabacked No | 25c | 226.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked Yes | 67c | 223.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 46c | 208$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 47c | 202.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae14…362dbacked Yes | 55c | 174.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…e698backed Yes | 48c | 155.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…accbbacked Yes | 60c | 127.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…27abbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 93.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 30c | 85.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 50c | 74.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf659…d1fabacked No | 27c | 73.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 73c | 61.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 66c | 57.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 56c | 53.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 49c | 53.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…ec1ebacked No | 31c | 33.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…7d9abacked No | 61c | 32.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…b58dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…b328backed No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 55c | 24.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…ac29backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.