Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c70d69fe8d2fca9fb300ba40d68a80a95a55c8a7836de5d0d0fbab2206c0187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4197…74e6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,090$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 7c | 4,159$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.54 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,078$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 1c | 2,074$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 2c | 1,871$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,619$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 1,471$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 10c | 1,271$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…1fedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,208$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes | 4c | 1,077$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…03f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 5c | 863.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…b520backed No | 76c | 632.59$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 4c | 609.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 7c | 580.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Yes | 4c | 558.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…52fabacked Yes | 3c | 548.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 4c | 522.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…a103backed No | 75c | 512.56$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…50f5backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 16c | 345.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 19c | 324.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea09…3a5ebacked Yes | 24c | 321.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5aeabacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 73c | 271.69$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 6c | 244.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Yes | 36c | 165.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…27abbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…b090backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…ac29backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 55.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.