La Liga · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3016969c4c6673f9c5e6f7c899bcd4f5b63bff033ae4cb6a24a0965354c00d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 7c | 15,539$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.5 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 39c | 2,576$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 50c | 1,829$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 1,557$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.18 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Yes | 39c | 1,482$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,300$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.78 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,063$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 70c | 990.17$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.94 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 795.3$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 24c | 618.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 8c | 611.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 34c | 609.18$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 551$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 69c | 550$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.12 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f9…b78cbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 5c | 387.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 23c | 355$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…5857backed Yes | 17c | 297.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 7c | 269.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…68a9backed Yes | 8c | 252.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 5c | 236.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 67c | 222$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 8c | 207$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…0afebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 39c | 191.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…4e17backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Yes | 24c | 137.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c701backed Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes | 22c | 117.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 22c | 101.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 13c | 90.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Yes | 28c | 89.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…aa68backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 77c | 57.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Yes | 25c | 47.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…6acbbacked Yes | 34c | 43.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 33c | 34.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-12-16?No won
- Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.