Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x301cc56263ea4accdc31d9f5cab56c5d0bf12564a94b83b73721f8b2846fa295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,240 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 5c | 609.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 77c | 452.12$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 402.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 6c | 391.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 21c | 356.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 70c | 299.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 6c | 247.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 239.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 22c | 224.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 202.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 187.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 186.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 177.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 159.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 158.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 24c | 151.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 143.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 141.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 26c | 131.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 129.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 129.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…c3f1backed Yes | 31c | 121.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 117.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 111.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…8d27backed Yes | 26c | 110.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 103.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 94.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…14cabacked Yes | 26c | 94.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 89.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 37c | 86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 84.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 82.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 75.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 74.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 70.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 16c | 67.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 38c | 65.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 63.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 61.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 24c | 60.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 58.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 56.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 35c | 56.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 76c | 53.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 21c | 51.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 27c | 51.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 48.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 74c | 46.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 41.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 38.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 27c | 37.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…50f8backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…56eebacked Yes | 37c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked No | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 69c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 73c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.