Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a019906eadf111fb42a0ef37f18c5784f219ac4657455fcea98ab82952d3166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,799 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 22c | 784.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 75c | 753.22$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.61 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 631.24$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 75c | 550.46$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 511.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 453.17$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 72c | 353.08$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 338$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 63c | 330.25$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 312.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 45c | 309.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 75c | 269.31$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 38c | 246$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 39c | 240.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 233.8$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 217.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 68c | 211.46$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 198.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 170.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 31c | 168.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…291bbacked Yes | 41c | 167$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 37c | 165.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 165.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…1456backed Yes | 41c | 161$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 148.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…4daebacked Yes | 42c | 137$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 73c | 136.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 37c | 131.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 128.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…a0e7backed Yes | 40c | 126$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 78c | 124.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 123.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd080…840bbacked Yes | 41c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 119$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 77c | 111.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 77c | 109.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 106.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 71c | 105.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 54c | 105.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 70c | 97.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…2793backed Yes | 33c | 91.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 33c | 91.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 32c | 90.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…14cabacked Yes | 28c | 89.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 29c | 84.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 82.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 82.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 32c | 79.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 65c | 77.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 62c | 75.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 76c | 74.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 70.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 23c | 66.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51e…441abacked No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3049…39cdbacked No | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…f40ebacked Yes | 39c | 63.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 46c | 60.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 60.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 25c | 60.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…b83cbacked No | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 36c | 56.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 55.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…4383backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 53c | 54.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 53.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 76c | 52.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 51.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 39c | 50.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 50.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 50.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…04d0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…5532backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 70c | 49.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed No | 79c | 48.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 49c | 46.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 80c | 46.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 45c | 44.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 67c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…cdedbacked No | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked No | 47c | 42.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 80c | 40.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 78c | 40.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 78c | 40.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…bd4ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.