Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc93e32b80d18d789cb77dd4a0ac8cbc3b59954ee164d49004bb57fd7bc981b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,496 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 9c | 1,437$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.81 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 1,183$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 16c | 865.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 731.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 714.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 556.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 357.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.41 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 347.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 313.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.83 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 44c | 295.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 265.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 261.75$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 248.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 228.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 36c | 223.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 75c | 210.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 189.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 52c | 182.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 24c | 172.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed Yes | 15c | 163.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 153.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 56c | 140.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 132.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 39c | 125.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 119.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 119$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 12c | 116.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 15c | 112.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 20c | 112$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…778fbacked Yes | 18c | 108$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +467.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…6a2dbacked Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 13c | 98.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 96.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c9…14fbbacked Yes | 19c | 95.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +420.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…fc5abacked Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8929backed Yes | 17c | 93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +258.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 17c | 85.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 69.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 31c | 67.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 67.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…9843backed Yes | 16c | 66.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 66.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 28c | 64.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 60.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 54.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 55c | 53.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 58c | 52.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 80c | 48.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 52c | 48.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 40c | 43.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 46c | 39.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…c3f1backed Yes | 34c | 35.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 78c | 34.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fa…013abacked No | 78c | 32.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…dd4bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 60c | 29.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…dce7backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 67c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 23.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 71c | 22.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 78c | 19.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…8888backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…b25fbacked Yes | 55c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8732…101fbacked Yes | 68c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…27ffbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.