MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3032405a099b03b01f8b0af29d0ae14a45ea67307e74677ac65e55686e85cf56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 2,588$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.76 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…53aebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 2,251$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 19c | 1,243$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.45 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 986$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.96 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 898.31$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 889.2$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.11 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 251.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 250.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 246$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 199.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 16c | 168.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 134$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 121.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 60.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…5ef5backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 39.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 32.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.