MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16681879585ecd6b3028532ca776098633751ae29f351f229664e6dc52bb1b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 110,555$60,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,521.96 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 45,822$20,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,707.07 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…e3bcbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 42,200$19,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,412 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 29,824$14,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,258.41 | 254 | 45.3%115 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…c6a0backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 19,452$9,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,336.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 14,616$8,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,248.17 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 9,000$4,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,290 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 7,322$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.24 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 7,181$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,446.98 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 7,037$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.02 | 1,894 | 52.9%1,001 W · 893 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 6,701$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350.74 | 241 | 53.9%130 W · 111 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 6,580$3,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,148.22 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 5,278$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.86 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 3,733$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.03 | 997 | 50.1%499 W · 498 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.07 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 1,688$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.59 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 1,534$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.87 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…b60bbacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 1,407$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 795.78$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.16 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 163 | 42.3%69 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 495$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 478.72$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.21 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 473$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.1 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 404.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 395.55$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.74 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…ec19backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 376.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…059ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 371.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 370.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 1,213 | 49.1%595 W · 618 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 332.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 2,327 | 51.1%1,188 W · 1,139 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 309.32$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 5,240 | 56.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L | +130.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 261.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 256.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 256$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 245$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago Cubs | 22c | 241.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…5c37backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 204.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 199$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 186.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 180.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 664 | 49.2%327 W · 337 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 164$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 141.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 137$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 111.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 241 | 42.7%103 W · 138 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 55.4%196 W · 158 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 108.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 633 | 47.1%298 W · 335 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 68.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 58.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 579 | 44.6%258 W · 321 L | -35.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 56.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 196 | 49.5%97 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 53.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 50.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 43.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 672 | 47.8%321 W · 351 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 39.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11eb…ef4bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee18…724abacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 24.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.