MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe78c36b4e19e88e6954debef7098c6ff692db481c8af8b582e999475b14809c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Cincinnati Reds | 5c | 620.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.1 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 375$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 5,240 | 56.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L | +130.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 161.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 11c | 157.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 143.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…fcb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 111.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 31cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Chicago Cubs | 15c | 88.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 889 | 52.8%469 W · 420 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 83.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 664 | 49.2%327 W · 337 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 72.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 55.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 968 | 48.8%472 W · 496 L | -42.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 35.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.