MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91c15ee3387c923a33df3cb585f0fce08572063091de59b9b6ea2ec9e2c65608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Over | 42c | 10,409$4,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,037.22 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 6,521$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.18 | 1,894 | 52.9%1,001 W · 893 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 4,853$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.47 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 1,088 | 48.3%525 W · 563 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 55c | 1,545$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 254 | 51.2%130 W · 124 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,524$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.55 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 43c | 1,218$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.81 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 1,155$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.38 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 58c | 950$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 1,926 | 53.4%1,029 W · 897 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 60c | 796.2$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.72 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 699.42$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.92 | 1,213 | 49.1%595 W · 618 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 60c | 627$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.93 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 39c | 306.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 42c | 288$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 241.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.53 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 57c | 206.56$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 584 | 51.5%301 W · 283 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 41c | 200.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 133.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 127.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 40c | 116.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 2,077 | 39.3%817 W · 1,260 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under | 59c | 68.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 633 | 47.1%298 W · 335 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Under | 55c | 61.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…f6d8backed Under | 62c | 55.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 55c | 50.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 41c | 45.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 62c | 45.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 44.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 59c | 40.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 40.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 58c | 36.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 60c | 26.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.