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MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Under47c155,367$73,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,022.7249049%240 W · 250 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Over53c106,344$56,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,045.0951353.8%276 W · 237 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Over51c26,266$13,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,783.5611849.2%58 W · 60 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Under48c21,000$10,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,08099249.9%495 W · 497 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over53c16,415$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,715.091,60448.6%779 W · 825 L-2.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over52c8,944$4,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,305.2511,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfc…bf06backed Over53c7,777$4,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,655.197251.4%37 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd0…f442backed Over53c7,358$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,458.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5911…a5a8backed Under48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002650%13 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over52c6,152$3,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.073,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under54c5,525$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,981.9611,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.1536743.6%160 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44050351.9%261 W · 242 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over52c2,600$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24848348.4%234 W · 249 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under48c2,047$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.562,32751.1%1,188 W · 1,139 L+26.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under49c2,039$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.764963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over52c2,002$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.9649245.9%226 W · 266 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c1,800$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8645,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c1,712$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.577,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over52c1,707$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.3637449.2%184 W · 190 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…5b1dbacked Under45c1,354$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over53c1,238$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.951,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Over48c1,169$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60820948.3%101 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over49c1,132$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.5424349%119 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48049146.4%228 W · 263 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over52c952.79$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.512,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over53c811.64$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.123,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Under61c800$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4884362.8%27 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over55c648.78$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.261,21349.1%595 W · 618 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Under50c599.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9949350.9%251 W · 242 L-11.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3814…17bcbacked Under47c412.84$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.915950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under66c364.93$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.851,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over34c361.64$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.688,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over53c329$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6393353.9%503 W · 430 L+22.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under48c300.72$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.39,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Over52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14416448.2%79 W · 85 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Over53c269$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7938449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2470…dc4dbacked Under51c196.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007054.3%38 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3117048.2%82 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over35c188.2$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3358139.4%229 W · 352 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under47c160.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1474752.5%392 W · 355 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over52c152.88$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3858451.5%301 W · 283 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Over53c150.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.943060%18 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Over53c149.55$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.293953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over50c136.57$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.935748.5%173 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under54c133.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0363347.1%298 W · 335 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under48c131.44$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9994456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Over53c123$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.817054.3%38 W · 32 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c119.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.679350.1%397 W · 396 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c114.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.451,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under48c107.57$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.821,90649.3%940 W · 966 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed Under48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509861.2%60 W · 38 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4824259.1%143 W · 99 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Over52c99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5216739.5%66 W · 101 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Over62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7781857.1%467 W · 351 L-2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under48c94.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.161,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e49…e7debacked Under56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Over53c86.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.462245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under47c83.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1462052.7%327 W · 293 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Under48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.45749.1%28 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3512558.4%73 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3597…c723backed Over53c67.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.921560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over53c55.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.324,53449%2,220 W · 2,314 L-41.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Under48c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9218145.3%82 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Over59c50.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823148.5%112 W · 119 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under48c50.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.051,85254%1,001 W · 851 L+25.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,44450.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.524349.4%120 W · 123 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Under49c49.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4911551.3%59 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over53c46.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9117442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ae…76c6backed Over55c41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.454351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over52c41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.628,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd691…fcc6backed Under48c36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.282045%9 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b8…2348backed Under47c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Over53c32.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.421866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e1b…aa71backed Over53c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1612653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…9729backed Over52c26.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.792657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Over52c24.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8327748.7%135 W · 142 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Over53c20.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4931554%170 W · 145 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeed…3aecbacked Over53c19.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.332365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.