Ukraine · resolved market
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x303d0c590ddd26fb6a895e305ba7301d70b7bc29e7a3f920a29edfeb2c11f626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 4,475$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 4,030$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,050$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 7c | 1,793$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 13c | 1,238$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 9c | 1,187$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 76c | 895$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…6becbacked Yes | 13c | 775.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 7c | 754.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 526.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 79c | 523$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 79c | 510$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 499.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed No | 73c | 448.48$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…a9c1backed Yes | 24c | 438.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed Yes | 27c | 371.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…5ebbbacked No | 80c | 347.97$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 322.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…56eebacked No | 75c | 295.01$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 28c | 235.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 79c | 229$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…eb00backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…fac1backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…0e53backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ec…9a6bbacked Yes | 8c | 128.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 26c | 116.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 111.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…e200backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e8…3c90backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd974…457bbacked No | 79c | 59.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…4c95backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked No | 80c | 31.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked No | 67c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…ba9fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e02…2110backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.