Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30782334edf872671c30102c794bc8dc192c9f3e08208bd83889779dc23bd68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 43c | 2,873$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.52 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 52c | 1,446$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.91 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 1,130$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.85 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 69c | 813.38$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.07 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 799.99$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 59c | 581.41$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.03 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 78c | 531.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 418.83$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.73 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…0f8fbacked Yes | 44c | 400$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 46c | 210.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 62c | 135.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 56c | 83.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…cefdbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 67.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 58c | 63.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…1813backed Yes | 43c | 51.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 52c | 34.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 48c | 33.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…123bbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…6b2fbacked Yes | 43c | 27.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…85bbbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 54c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 15?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 15?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 15?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 15?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on August 15?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.