NFL · resolved market
SF vs. LAC: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309e3f6158f2de05c0feed039ecde3ee3d98a02ba826c9cc23df88c088dc4e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 17,189$8,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,723.9 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 2,274$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,575$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.25 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 1,511$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.71 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 1,259$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.91 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 748.79$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 373.32$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 48c | 310$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 301$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Under | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 34c | 117.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 53c | 102.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 85.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Over | 29c | 76.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Under | 19c | 71.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 65c | 57.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 53.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 62c | 35.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 66c | 33.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 63c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 38.5this page
- 49ers vs. Chargers49ers won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 37.5Over won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-2.5)SF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.