NFL · resolved market
SF vs. LAC: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6879c29cb6fb799d9c1b9cd3a7388b8964210cfc56bae1e878bce9920a932583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Over | 60c | 9,076$5,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593.05 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 6,352$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.97 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 1,644$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.12 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Over | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 40c | 1,225$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.21 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 988$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.52 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 796.15$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.23 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 39c | 525$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 401.53$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 57c | 321.56$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.65 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Under | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 45c | 196.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 38c | 139.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 37c | 99.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 31c | 98.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 32c | 71.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 54c | 56.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Under | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 59c | 52.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Over | 41c | 42.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 33.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 60c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 39.5this page
- 49ers vs. Chargers49ers won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 37.5Over won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-2.5)SF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.