NFL · resolved market
Spread: LAC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8befda6e0590e4a1d38314110b3c8dafe37b53b6c8f8afac2ee1f2bad3ee1ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SFof LAC, SF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked SF | 53c | 74,828$39,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,498.13 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked LAC | 48c | 33,712$16,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,044.85 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked LAC | 47c | 28,542$13,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,506.55 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed LAC | 47c | 17,369$8,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,163.3 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed SF | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed LAC | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed SF | 51c | 1,669$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed SF | 53c | 1,057$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.67 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed SF | 53c | 666$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked LAC | 47c | 512$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed SF | 53c | 509.01$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.13 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed LAC | 48c | 507.52$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.61 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked LAC | 47c | 430$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed LAC | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed LAC | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed LAC | 48c | 67.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed LAC | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked LAC | 48c | 52.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed LAC | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked SF | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…8aacbacked SF | 54c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked SF | 51c | 37.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked SF | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed LAC | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed LAC | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed SF | 54c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed SF | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed LAC | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)this page
- 49ers vs. Chargers49ers won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 37.5Over won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 38.5Over won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: SF (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-2.5)SF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.