NFL · resolved market
SF vs. LAC: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d434277805b37856902c3a68bf1e0b20a7c843c77219176e9d12189b1e3fc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 49,517$26,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,932.29 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 46c | 19,697$9,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,060.53 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 1c | 11,071$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 46c | 4,800$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 4,528$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.44 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,797$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.8 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 1,702$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 1,200$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.73 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,165$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.2 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 1,015$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.7 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 997.2$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.71 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 47c | 578.34$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.73 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 486$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 59c | 211.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…9e05backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 46c | 164$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 101.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 49c | 61.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 48c | 61.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 58.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…848abacked Under | 46c | 43.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 22.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 37.5this page
- 49ers vs. Chargers49ers won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 38.5Over won
- SF vs. LAC: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-1.5)SF won
- Spread: SF (-2.5)SF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.