Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c17d1538f88b9681b5e19ae32c31a4e6652f8269d23ff5d418c5185a4f8c67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 26c | 826.89$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.18 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 778.93$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 543$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 410.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 24c | 383.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.91 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 312.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.81 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 55c | 266.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 34c | 234.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 222.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 55c | 206.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 205.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 196.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 183.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 175.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 174.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 18c | 164.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 15c | 162.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.89 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 162.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 162.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 154$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 52c | 153.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 137.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 137.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 134.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 19c | 133.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 19c | 126.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 125.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 70c | 124$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 22c | 122.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 121.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 121.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 121$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 120.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 78c | 114.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 113.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 17c | 107.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 105.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 103.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 52c | 96.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 93.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 15c | 93.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 14c | 91.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 55c | 89.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 87.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 87.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 84.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 66.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 65.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 18c | 65.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 18c | 64.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 62.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 18c | 62.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 59.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 58.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 58.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 58.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 56.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 49c | 48.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 48.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 48.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 46c | 44.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 52c | 43.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 49c | 42.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 49c | 41.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 40.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 39.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 38.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 27c | 37.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 51c | 35.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 70c | 35.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 49c | 32.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.