Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050d23883c6ea738e9ed17723a2aa033ffc75dbb3d5f0eabed60a5978bee1af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 803.61$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.75 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 783.42$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 751.23$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 408.63$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 67c | 298.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 64c | 295.92$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 70c | 287.84$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.81 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 278$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 30c | 245.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 232.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 213.59$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 210.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 77c | 204.69$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 197$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 55c | 195$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 65c | 171.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…08e1backed Yes | 61c | 160.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 69c | 156.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 65c | 151.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 142.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 138.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 135.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 45c | 133.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 131.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 128.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 124.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 34c | 123.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 77c | 120.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 118.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 67c | 116.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 115.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 115$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 111.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 37c | 108.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 107.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 40c | 106$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 105.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 61c | 104.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 104$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 98.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 97.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 71c | 97.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 31c | 96.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 79c | 96.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 61c | 93.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 91.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 88.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 86.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 85.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 41c | 85.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 36c | 85.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 83.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 26c | 79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 18c | 76.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…3342backed No | 45c | 75.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 19c | 73.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked Yes | 53c | 70.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 67.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 31c | 63.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 65c | 59.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 59.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 67c | 56.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 34c | 53.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 61c | 53.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 65c | 53.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 24c | 51.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 31c | 50.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 61c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 49.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 41c | 49.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 48.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 38c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 36c | 44.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 47c | 44.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 41c | 41.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 40.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…2a35backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 34c | 39.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 33c | 39.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 44c | 38.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.