Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cc9b6e7b047c14c9fd805b04ffefbd9fb3837019a1db34f0c334396bcf1cb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 3c | 880.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 15c | 423.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 12c | 383.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 315.96$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 12c | 252.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 224.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 218.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 207.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 149.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 140.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 135.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 125.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 24c | 113.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 109.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 103.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed Yes | 70c | 92.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 82.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 59c | 78.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 77.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 69.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 64.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 61.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 54.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 55c | 53.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed No | 55c | 50.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…57d6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 30c | 47.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 61c | 46.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 46.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 46.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked Yes | 28c | 43.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed No | 39c | 41.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 34c | 40.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 27c | 39.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked No | 72c | 38.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 37.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 35.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 32.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…9f68backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 67c | 30.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…7b4bbacked Yes | 74c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…ee1abacked No | 73c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 68c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.