Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fd7ec52dbc4c9899a0cf02131958636033cec54ebf69d4e7a526621c0b49af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 526.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 262.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 11c | 252.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 209.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 194.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 14c | 177.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 171.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 25c | 168.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 159.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…bc29backed Yes | 12c | 148.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…4956backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 18c | 141.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 10c | 129.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 118.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 31c | 105.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 103.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 74c | 99.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 87.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 77.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Yes | 67c | 74.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 73c | 70.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 68.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 64.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 37c | 61.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 58.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 55.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 54.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 61c | 53.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7c…41f6backed Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 34c | 51.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 39c | 49.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 48.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 33c | 47.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 46.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 42.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 27c | 42.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 32c | 40.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 39c | 39.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 39.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 38.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 38.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 56c | 35.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 35.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 37c | 32.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 32.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 45c | 31.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 31.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 70c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 64c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 24.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 75c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.