MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30e3ed3e62ad5a5bf94c9c2b58e034f611193e0c4cdd41a512353b3e5e56d9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 36,619$15,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,379.85 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 12,768$7,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,362.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 12,566$7,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,146.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 12,119$4,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 11,509$7,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,326.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 7,500$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 2,841$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.55 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 2,072$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.54 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 1,157$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.94 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 900.51$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 473.71$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.66 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 399$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 285$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 233$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 202.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 185$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 110.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 102.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 49.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Colorado Rockies | 47c | 41.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Colorado Rockies | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 30.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 29.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Colorado Rockies | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.