MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96295473d00930707ad69311cdb9dc681fca01d4f4fed1ef108aa83763b94741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 45c | 4,967$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.91 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 4,685$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.74 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 16c | 1,557$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,530$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Under | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.44 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.61 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 827.36$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 44c | 772.66$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.69 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 46c | 758.17$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.41 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 706.21$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…ad47backed Under | 46c | 526.68$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 498.1$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 21c | 446.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 23c | 440.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 55c | 288.88$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 256.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 253.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 219.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 36c | 130.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 56c | 78.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 56c | 65.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…8341backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 54.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 28c | 51.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Under | 59c | 50.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…6bb6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…93bfbacked Over | 36c | 31.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 55c | 30.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 40c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed Under | 80c | 19.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.