South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x313791abfe7f328dd990b8c58e4c04f7632ec86800bd2df8e5887cf20c24ea8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed No | 62c | 13,000$8,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,985.95 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 7,513$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.72 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 75c | 6,126$4,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.66 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,750$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…7248backed Yes | 13c | 3,333$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 35c | 2,914$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.45 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Yes | 38c | 1,547$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.72 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,317$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.63 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 24c | 1,186$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.62 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 39c | 848.9$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.83 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 783.92$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.16 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Yes | 42c | 681.82$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 38c | 657$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 44c | 645.45$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 60c | 571$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 66c | 468.64$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 32c | 409.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Yes | 33c | 347.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…d370backed Yes | 29c | 345.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 14c | 279.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 42c | 238.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 39c | 226.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…3e7dbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 58c | 170.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 35c | 142.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 40c | 122.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 30c | 116.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 112$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Yes | 37c | 109$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 44c | 97.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…2e9abacked Yes | 43c | 91.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed6…776fbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Yes | 43c | 69.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 39c | 68.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 77c | 64.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544f…3ca1backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…3e4dbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 40c | 51.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 50.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 58c | 50.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…2e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519c…8ae9backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 59c | 43.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 59c | 38.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 59c | 34.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…ce73backed No | 59c | 31.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…ead7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 60c | 27.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed No | 59c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…8c25backed No | 56c | 19.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-22?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.