NBA · resolved market
Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318a3aaaff5e138a855ddbd15020eb922052cbdfaea17f7e9c1c1f0e3a01243a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 66c | 699.36$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.15 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 33c | 640.45$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 474.19$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 433$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 66c | 431.28$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 33c | 419.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…fda3backed Yes | 33c | 332.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df1…aa1ebacked Yes | 36c | 303.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Yes | 37c | 288$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 67c | 62.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 67c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.