NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65109de67d756ac614777ad7d93ba68bc1705be6323f3119f3742d525349fd2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 50c | 15,800$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,900 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 48c | 11,911$5,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,205.51 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 5,893$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 4,983$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.48 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 4,198$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.98 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 52c | 2,914$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.03 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 2,098$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.15 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 51c | 2,006$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.88 | 187 | 49.2%92 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…49cebacked Under | 51c | 1,900$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.99 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…c1ecbacked Under | 47c | 1,892$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 50c | 1,283$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.5 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 1,280$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.82 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 51c | 1,222$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.57 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 895.38$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.13 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 793.77$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 51c | 746.86$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.35 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 600.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 51c | 473.85$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.19 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 464.3$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 411.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…e944backed Under | 50c | 338$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 52c | 100.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 64.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Over | 51c | 50.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…cc32backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 52c | 27.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 25.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 49c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 21.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Under | 51c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.