NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8746da80188cf8b013d2601899d1ca40ddb669ea56ee36066ab652e360fd8224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Hawks | 54c | 18,473$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,472.52 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 46c | 14,325$6,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,565.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks | 54c | 5,554$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.7 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards | 46c | 5,072$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.03 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 46c | 3,478$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.88 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards | 46c | 900$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hawks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Wizards | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards | 36c | 230.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Hawks | 51c | 218.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Wizards | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards | 47c | 122.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wizards | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Wizards | 46c | 100.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…6010backed Hawks | 80c | 66.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Wizards | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Hawks | 57c | 52.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hawks | 55c | 45.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…4eaabacked Wizards | 48c | 45.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks | 72c | 28.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Hawks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.