NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3254eed88425072710979aef97c1226a3a4ccac49a15a4f27362dc7c4920b099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Pacers | 50c | 5,400$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Cavaliers | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 48c | 4,694$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.19 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 4,218$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 3,051$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Pacers | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 42c | 2,100$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Pacers | 50c | 1,460$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,025$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.33 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 981.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.64 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Cavaliers | 58c | 840$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.4 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pacers | 49c | 817$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.33 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 48c | 454.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.39 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Pacers | 44c | 420$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…397abacked Cavaliers | 51c | 358.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.82 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Cavaliers | 50c | 352$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Pacers | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Cavaliers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Pacers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Cavaliers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4494…3bfdbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Pacers | 49c | 96.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Pacers | 49c | 96.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Cavaliers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Pacers | 50c | 83.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Cavaliers | 50c | 79.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…c444backed Pacers | 51c | 62.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Cavaliers | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Cavaliers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Pacers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…50f5backed Pacers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Cavaliers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…72f4backed Cavaliers | 51c | 32.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…0111backed Pacers | 51c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.