NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0c205771819db448bf3d819fe6dde779472d8857325a63729387ae2ba017af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Over | 45c | 10,057$4,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,531.36 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 55c | 8,350$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 4,819$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…cf3abacked Under | 58c | 4,499$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 49c | 1,849$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.88 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Over | 71c | 1,222$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 954.71$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 46c | 822.98$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.41 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 696$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.49 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 55c | 680.67$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.37 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Under | 55c | 656.06$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.71 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 70c | 619.66$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.81 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 562$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Under | 51c | 404.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 269$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…8ed0backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Over | 47c | 193.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 54c | 135.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Under | 44c | 114.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 31c | 107.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 34c | 93.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Under | 33c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Over | 46c | 32.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 22.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 21.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.