NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8b6eaaae35c5070c3784007aea4d87a62031a8bbfaf40367258fb224deba60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Cavaliers | 50c | 14,536$7,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,267.92 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…612cbacked Pacers | 50c | 10,110$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403b…246fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 10,084$5,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,041.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pacers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Cavaliers | 42c | 6,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.98 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.97 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Pacers | 58c | 5,048$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.05 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 3,527$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.5 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pacers | 51c | 2,899$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.43 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 2,854$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 2,064$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Pacers | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Pacers | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Cavaliers | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.08 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 50c | 1,596$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.14 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Cavaliers | 50c | 1,535$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,231$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.82 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Cavaliers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 50c | 985.2$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.68 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pacers | 58c | 939.66$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 841$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 49c | 760$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 50c | 705.36$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.36 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Cavaliers | 51c | 615.53$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.61 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 53c | 599.07$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pacers | 52c | 400$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 50c | 370.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Pacers | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…5838backed Pacers | 49c | 330.53$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 48c | 247.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Pacers | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Pacers | 50c | 198.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Pacers | 58c | 191.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Pacers | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cavaliers | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 46c | 160.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Pacers | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Cavaliers | 51c | 134.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Pacers | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…2854backed Cavaliers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Pacers | 51c | 98.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Cavaliers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Pacers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Cavaliers | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Cavaliers | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 41c | 73.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Cavaliers | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Cavaliers | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…dcf4backed Pacers | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Pacers | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Cavaliers | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Pacers | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b1…f012backed Pacers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Pacers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Cavaliers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…a121backed Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Pacers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b62ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Pacers | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Pacers | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Pacers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8357…db26backed Cavaliers | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed Pacers | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Pacers | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Pacers | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.