NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb271be1fd36d39df248526573b47db09a806722fe1712f27d35279af149f1ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pacers | 49c | 8,027$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,946.87 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Cavaliers | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.98 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 3,282$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Pacers | 54c | 2,976$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.05 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 1,922$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.62 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Pacers | 54c | 1,756$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.06 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 49c | 1,034$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Pacers | 48c | 954.94$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.37 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 937$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Cavaliers | 56c | 894.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.64 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pacers | 48c | 872.18$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.65 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 47c | 628.12$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Cavaliers | 45c | 606.82$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Pacers | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers | 53c | 462$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 441.1$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.63 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Pacers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…c0d6backed Pacers | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 52c | 376.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Pacers | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 62c | 290$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Pacers | 11c | 233.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pacers | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pacers | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Pacers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Pacers | 50c | 173.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Pacers | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pacers | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 52c | 101.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Cavaliers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Cavaliers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Cavaliers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pacers | 47c | 63.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…cc0fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Pacers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Cavaliers | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…50f5backed Pacers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Cavaliers | 56c | 34.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Pacers | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Cavaliers | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Pacers | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Cavaliers | 78c | 17.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.