MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32b6cd35bbcc24fbcdc202a25595ea509b70726eb4047f818cc51242ea452c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $579,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $571,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63a5…8e33backed Under | 59c | 529,229$312,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216,971.52 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 40c | 239,477$95,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,790.75 | 310 | 39%121 W · 189 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 41c | 150,000$61,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,500 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 71,965$30,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,535.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 42c | 54,759$23,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,250.91 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 32,671$14,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,185.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 42c | 18,888$7,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,932.96 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 17,064$9,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,321.77 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 57c | 12,765$7,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,457.58 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 2,728$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 2,674$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 58c | 1,685$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.02 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 958.11$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 42c | 698.1$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.52 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 42c | 308.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 182.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Over | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 40c | 167.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 44c | 119.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Over | 40c | 119.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…c431backed Over | 43c | 112.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e4…2e35backed Under | 60c | 107.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 63c | 98.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 48c | 92.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708c…5b96backed Over | 45c | 73.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 56c | 68.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f504backed Under | 56c | 60.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 47c | 55.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 47.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 44.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 57c | 41.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 57c | 37.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a14…cab1backed Over | 44c | 36.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 46c | 35.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 34.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 33.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3bbebacked Under | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…9bc9backed Over | 46c | 31.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 53c | 30.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 54c | 30.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 45c | 26.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 59c | 26.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Over | 58c | 24.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cb…cdf7backed Under | 67c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.