Movies · resolved market
Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c88b53df02fd95f698534432cdf5f35d182b78fc75a2d7209e4d3e85b988a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40b8…da32backed Yes | 3c | 3,697$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 10c | 2,083$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 12c | 2,074$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.74 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,387$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 8c | 545.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 4c | 528.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 6c | 334.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed Yes | 12c | 267$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 6c | 241.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 12c | 103.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 14c | 72.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…fd45backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m?this page
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11m and $13m?Yes won
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $15m?No won
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.