Movies · resolved market
Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11m and $13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49aeb6908332131c55838c17f7cdc9c13e900acdba3cb4f6420e0574d680affc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 52c | 468.28$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 36c | 412.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.42 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 323.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 67c | 218.55$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 46c | 190$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 169.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 61c | 135$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 62c | 63.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…fd45backed Yes | 34c | 59.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 46c | 59.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 80c | 43.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…1f96backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd945…7112backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11m and $13m?this page
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $15m?No won
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?No won
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.