Movies · resolved market
Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7c40141bd970d3c2764be9efc45e67cd8857e8212b291cdbc9816223240dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 69c | 3,842$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.78 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…da32backed Yes | 10c | 3,630$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 29c | 2,124$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 28c | 2,113$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.37 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 70c | 1,824$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.74 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,429$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.58 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,095$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.74 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 70c | 1,000$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.27 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 27c | 999.25$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.66 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 794.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 15c | 515.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 12c | 505.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 16c | 500.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 20c | 453.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 430.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 76c | 358.88$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 30c | 314.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 303$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 12c | 285$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 6c | 267$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 245$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 7c | 198$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 31c | 159.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…d93abacked Yes | 32c | 158.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 32c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…5d2cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…fd45backed Yes | 36c | 56.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 55.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 52.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 71c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?this page
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11m and $13m?Yes won
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $15m?No won
- Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.