Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33235f3ec6375e76e5c450416ebc99739eb8dcf6d7cdeed6f006186b25f93d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,090$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,217$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 405$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 77c | 328.98$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 296$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 231.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 208.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 193$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 68c | 146.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 140.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 125.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 121.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 114.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 113.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 98.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 61c | 87.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 56c | 87.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 71c | 85.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 80.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 75.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 57c | 69.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 63c | 67.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 74c | 67.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 19c | 67.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 63c | 63.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 78c | 59.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 32c | 58.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 57.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 28c | 57.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 54c | 57.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 47.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 47c | 45.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 45c | 44.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 43.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 75c | 42.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed Yes | 41c | 39.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 73c | 39.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked Yes | 45c | 38.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 61c | 34.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 30.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 35c | 29.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 64c | 28.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 60c | 21.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.