TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes1c11,947$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.35671.5%1 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c1,333$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.586,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c985.62$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.121,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c582.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.118,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes10c553.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No61c472$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18247866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes11c301.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.494776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee54…a5eabacked Yes24c276.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.342161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No7c268.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c258.8$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.174,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7657150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No69c190.37$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.644,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c152.54$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.212,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6085049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c134.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No58c129.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.044,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked No17c114.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5825230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes39c107.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8554735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813542.2%57 W · 78 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362065%13 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes38c95.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9854253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes24c83.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.892,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No21c82.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0974926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes16c74.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No46c73.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4021338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes61c72.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.714645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No62c67.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.696966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes47c66.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c60.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.492,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.218945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa874…c532backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes23c58.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.381,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde16…033bbacked No38c56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.729100%9 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c53.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.893,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes26c50.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.785,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…b8debacked Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177524%18 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c49.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.034,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes28c44.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4362137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes80c43.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.816946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes37c38.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.091,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No64c36.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3541752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No69c35.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.953,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No61c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6523146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…f34abacked Yes76c34.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.351747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No59c31.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0415062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes39c30.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.951,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes38c30.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.614,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.59158.2%53 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc50c…3017backed Yes36c29.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7815258.6%89 W · 63 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes61c29.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8513959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes37c29.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes40c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7228368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes37c28.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.564346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes38c28.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes40c26.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4354335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed Yes75c25.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3917457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No59c23.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5451156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes55c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdb…b241backed No73c20.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.414864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713167.2%88 W · 43 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.226067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.215961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74351.2%22 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5c…767bbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75756.1%32 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-18.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes62c19.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.139176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c18.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.544,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No58c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5949359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c17.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.683,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d8…5430backed Yes79c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.