Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db6a4ef6d8006b5077b85acb132262317b8d565fbc8ffb8b09d158ac073115f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 1,340$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 2c | 642.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked No | 5c | 318.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 315$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 163.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 138.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 9c | 134.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 114.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 18c | 109.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 17c | 109.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 101.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 89.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 41c | 83.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 72.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 67c | 66.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 64.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 73c | 63.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 18c | 60.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 56.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 27c | 55.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 47.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 32c | 47.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 45c | 45.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 73c | 35.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 77c | 24.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 18.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 17.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.