WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33461411621530b10cae959cff49c1cbd14bea6e7f6a86013bffe6b5f3dcdaa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dallas Wingsof Dallas Wings, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 5,547$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.41 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings | 52c | 2,027$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.02 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings | 56c | 1,517$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.43 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 880.76$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.76 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Dallas Wings | 59c | 474.58$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 293.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Dallas Wings | 56c | 204.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Dallas Wings | 58c | 171.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 234 | 67.5%158 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 109$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 103.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Phoenix Mercury | 11c | 102.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Phoenix Mercury | 26c | 87.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 27.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 21.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas WingsDallas Wings won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)Dallas Wings won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)Dallas Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.