WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61cb5127658f9e182ca8338d97445cd952bfa1545632ac1d322bdf4ca239045c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 54c | 30,000$16,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,699.99 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 46c | 19,676$9,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,050.96 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Over | 45c | 9,932$4,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,469.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 1,904$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.43 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Under | 62c | 1,845$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.1 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 60c | 1,836$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.47 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 1,821$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.08 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,316$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.26 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a4dbbacked Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 46c | 194$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 46c | 166$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Over | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Under | 61c | 108$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 55c | 105.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 31c | 101.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Under | 53c | 94.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 234 | 67.5%158 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 40c | 73.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 45c | 59.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 58.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 214 | 47.7%102 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 627 | 46.9%294 W · 333 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 390 | 45.9%179 W · 211 L | -15.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb21…3f88backed Under | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 78c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 78c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 72c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas WingsDallas Wings won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5Under won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)Dallas Wings won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)Dallas Wings won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)Dallas Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.